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Who’d Win? The UK vs EU’s (Potentially Upcoming) Trade War

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With tensions increasing between the UK and EU, it’s looking increasingly likely that we’re on the brink of some sort of trade war. So in this video we unpack the likely outcomes of such a war, who’d win and what the impact would be.

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1 – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61773356
2 – http://www.ostchem.com/en/o-kompanii/proizvodstvo/sever
3 – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/14/ukraine-civilians-trapped-severodonetsk-russia-destroys-last-bridge
4 – https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-128-mission-command-natos?s=r
5 – https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1536319071310028800
6 – https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1521700059435388931/photo/1
7 – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61634050

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31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. @willieckaslike

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    From JOHNSON'S Premiership (and possibly even earlier) Britain has reneged on just about EVERYTHING they signed. What Government is going to trust the British Admin, ever again ? Unfortunately, the Palace of Westminster, once filled with people of HONOUR & INTEGRITY, has degenerated into a "den of iniquity" & a "School for Scoundrels"!

  2. @shivrao4734

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Its not Norther island but Northern Ireland

  3. @cauxxx2454

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    French, Italian and German quality vs England quality and reputation, are you serious ?

  4. @danielepavone3131

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Well the only sure way to know is to start one. Anybody to start?

  5. @hiss9989

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The EU obviously

  6. @alastairmcmullan9316

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    It’s Northern Ireland. Not Northern Island! 🤦‍♂️

  7. @chrisbailey7550

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Nobody wins a trade war. Sometimes though the answer as to who hurts the most, is not obvious. The Austro-Hungarian Empire imposed sanctions on little Serbia in 1912, and the result was economic damage to the Empire which Serbia barely noticed. Serbia found imports from elsewhere – Hapsburg exporters didn't find new markets.

    Moreover, if there was a Trade War, it would be initiated by the EU, not the UK. The exit agreement has its own dispure resolution mechanism, so acting outside that by altering the terms of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement is 'illegal'.

    None of the EU groupies will care, but the EU will be breaking international law.

  8. @ViLLaPar0s

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Used to buy stuff from Britain before EU exit, well i don't any more, because it is more expensive.

  9. @wardibald

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    On the final part: there should be no concession on the EU-side if the only "concession" for the UK is to "stop breaking international law". That would open the door for using similar future unilateral illegal action as leverage, not only by the UK, but by any trade partners of the EU.

  10. @axaxx25

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The simple fact that England is no longer part of the EU is a phenomenal victory for the EU. This is the greatest and most beautiful victory.

  11. @ElisandeWalters

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    I still am stuck at wondering why there should be any "negotiation" from the EU if the UK is set on legislating that they are not going to be bound by any such negotiation, as THIS administration had negotiated the Brexit deal.

  12. @stephenbuck1280

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    If we withdraw from all the withdrawal agreement which is catered for within the treaty this will not create a trade war, we will just trade with the EU under WTO terms. This is not a trade war. I am not sure people understand how goods being imported just about anywhere in the world is done. You imply that every container is opened and checked. This is not what happens. It is mostly done by paperwork on a trust basis and backed up by spot checks. This was the case for goods imported from the EU prior to Brexit as they were always subject to customs checks and can be done post Brexit. There is a large industry called freight forwarders who act as middlemen between the importers and customs and they dealt with EU imports pre Brexit. If we do trade on WTO terms with the EU the tariffs are in the main quite small. In general a free trade agreement results in a one off 3% increase in trade between the parties. China trades with the EU under WTO terms and it appears to be news to some that they have exported quite a lot of goods to the EU. Trading under WTO terms does require some more paperwork but it is not a massive issue once the system is established. The EU trade deficit in goods with the UK is just under £90 billion. Tariffs favour the county which imports the most. Some of the tariffs are absorbed by the importer and some are past onto the customer. But as the money goes to the government they can use the funds to reduce tax. Before anyone says I don’t know what I am talking about I have visited many sea and airports to review how custom controls work on 3 continents. It does not matter if you are in favour of Brexit or not WTO does not mean the end of trade between the parties. This issue has been misrepresented by those who oppose Brexit, a bit like some issues were misrepresented by those in favour of Brexit understand how goods being imported just about anywhere in the world is done. You imply that every container is opened and checked. This is not what happens. It is mostly done by paperwork on a trust basis and backed up by spot checks. This was the case for goods imported from the EU prior to Brexit as they were always subject to customs checks and can be done post Brexit. There is a large industry called freight forwarders who act as middlemen between the importers and customs and they dealt with EU imports pre Brexit. If we do trade on WTO terms with the EU the tariffs are in the main quite small. In general a free trade agreement results in a one off 3% increase in trade between the parties. China trades with the EU under WTO terms and it appears to be news to some that they have exported quite a lot of goods to the EU. Trading under WTO terms does require some more paperwork but it is not a massive issue once the system is established. The EU trade deficit in goods with the UK is just under £90 billion. Tariffs favour the county which imports the most. Some of the tariffs are absorbed by the importer and some are past onto the customer. But as the money goes to the government they can use the funds to reduce tax in the UK. Before anyone says I don’t know what I am talking about I have visited many sea and airports to review how custom controls work on 3 continents. It does not matter if you are in favour of Brexit or not WTO does not mean the end of trade between the parties.

  13. @aelux4179

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    If this were to happen it'd massively empower the CANZUK movement. Provided it brings CANZUK and the commonwealth to the forefront of British trade, it's unlikely that the UK would suffer many consequences to a trade war with the EU other than temporarily increased prices on imports until new trade arrangements are made with CANZUK and commonwealth members, which the UK proved with the in initial Brexit push, it can do extremely quickly.

  14. @rougebanker4554

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Not unless the UK is willing to put a knife in the back to ukraine and side with Russia. But stranger things have happened.

  15. @kkkiren599

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    It'll depend on whom US supports relatively more with access to energy , technology and copyright lease.

  16. @Quetzietse

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    I think it is astounding that the English still don't seem to realize that the EU isn''t going to be lenient towards the UK. We have been way too lenient with the UK the past decades already, and it gained us Brexit. More leniency is just going to embolden the UK in their anti-EU stance, because we are dealing with people who see this as weakness. The English need to wake up and realize the situation they are in already, or they need to feel the consequences of their decisions. And by this point I don't think the British are ever going to wake up and realize what a self-destructive path they are on, due to all the propaganda and nationalism, so that leaves only one option. It was nice knowing you guys.

  17. @kkkiren599

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    United thy standeth, divided thy falleth (piecemeal)! A small world none doeth hideth!

  18. @HH-hd7nd

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The EU has offered many, many solutions to smooth the operating of the protocol, but the UK has turned all of them down just to cater to the whises of the righting extremists in the Toy party. The UK government and right wingers play games for their own personal power.

    The moment the UK continues with this bill and its illegal nature the EU should react by terminating the TCA in its entirety and ban all UK goods and services. If the UK still continues with their nonsense all UK citizens (except the Northern Irish) should be banned from entering any EU country.

  19. @EastCoastCurious

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Northern ISLAND?

  20. @NLTops

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The question isn't "Who would win?", the question is "Why on Earth would either of us want one?". It's a ridiculous notion. There are plenty of global crises emerging to worry about. There's no need to add to the pile.

  21. @grant6849

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The EU obviously that's a stupid question. Anyone who thinks that the UK could take on the EU and win a trade war is a complete moron

  22. @CptnHammer1

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    you called it. boris is out!

  23. @permissionBRICK

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Well, that aged like fine milk

  24. @colinpenaluna9268

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Sorry lets get the Fact right
    The EU is not a Country its a Trading Block
    We dont trade with the EU But the individual Countries inside the EU
    And there are about 8 Countries we do most of our trade with
    France Germany Spain Italy Greece Holland Denmark and Ireland
    And we buy far more from them than they do from us
    France and Germany are in Crisis
    Plus if we Ban all EU Fishing boats in our waters it will affect about 5 of the 8
    As for Inflation there are at least 13 Countries have higher Inflation than the UK Spain 10.2 Estonia 20% and the others are in between so the EU inflation is an average not the true Figures
    Germany have lost 24% just in the Car industry in June how much have they lost all together
    At least we can go to other Countries around the World
    Where will Germany go

  25. @realitykicksin8755

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    This is a Joke! The united kingdom on the import thether for decades, celebrating its 25th aniversary of trade deficit. The English are a laughing stock! The last 5 years of Brexit are a display of stupidity and incompetence! Tory idiots David, Theresa and Boris have made Sturgeon look intelligent! A weak indecisive labour party, never said to remain, to ensure weakness for the next decade. On the other hand .. the EU GDP has been stagnant for 15 years as it seems that they are closed for business: enter the EU burocrats.

  26. @becoming.andreia

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Oh lets see, a 449 million people high standards market, or a 67 million de-regulated one… gee I wonder!

  27. @evitoonbundit2453

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    Next to irrelevant. Both have already lost to Russia and will lose even more to the BRIC and associates like OPEC.

  28. @robertsmith9810

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    no one wins any war we are all looser`s

  29. @daydodog

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    lmao not even close

  30. @norwaydude4798

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    EU is the biggest economy on earth while UK is an irrelevant island

  31. @Quakester2000

    March 5, 2024 at 6:33 am

    The northern Ireland protocol had caused major issues for consumers and some businesses in northern Ireland. Its also anti democratic as no one in northern Ireland has any say on any rules eu introduce as no one is in eu for northern Ireland. If EU wont negotiate what options do you have its caused issues. Eu doesn't care about good Friday agreement as there only looking at irish side. They are loyalists that could start new troubles its eu trying to use northern Ireland as bargaining chip to make uk join common market.

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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