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Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive: What Would Count as a “Success”?

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With speculation about Ukraine’s counter-offensive rife, many are debating what success on the battlefield would actually look like. So in this video, we discuss where they might stage the offensive and what would qualify as success for the Ukrainians.

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1 – https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1609850386629771265/photo/1
2 – https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20Memo%207954
3 – https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=49.3498885283069%2C34.24358522210305&z=7

00:00 Introduction
00:55 Defining Success
02:11 Donbas
03:54 Zaporizhzhia
05:21 Kherson

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25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. @SimbaM2kufu

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Ukrainian looser supporters don't want to accept the reality. Russia wins no matter the strategy.

  2. @FreedomFox1

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Ukraine and Russia were close to a peace deal a year ago, when BoJo flew down and put a stop to it. The deal would have officially given Crimea to Russia and left Donbas to be negotiated at a future date. This is why Zelensky keeps focusing on Crimea…. He NEEDS to take Crimea, or all the fighting and death was for nothing. But if he does take Crimea, then there’s a risk that he loses US support (or worse, Russia uses a tactical nuke). This war is madness…

  3. @vonbarnes2700

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Ukraine needs to go full savage mode but i can see the problem in that k dont think they fear Russia or Putin if you watch the old videos when rissia first came storming in 8 years ago its Russian back citizens and Ukraine citizens that feel more russian and Ukraine military is like they are still Ukraines well i always felt that those who wanna be apart if russia go join and do your part in tbat country let ukraine live

  4. @aronandreas

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    What country want crim to stay in Russia hands?

  5. @Nootathotep

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Crossing the Dnipro in the southwest sounds suicidal. Forces south of the river could have their supplies shelled as they cross the river

  6. @danielt.8573

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    I'd launch a large scale offensive on every front so they couldn't reinforce eachother but still would concentrate mostly in Donbas, cutting access from mainland russia to the enemy. After that, the primary target would be to keep the bridge Russia-Crimea destroyed at all times.

  7. @batuhancokmar7330

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    TLDR, all of this is BS. A) 3 regions mentinoed as "possible" encompass the entire front. In other words, you've just said attack may happen anywhere, anytime. B) What counts as success depends on Ukrainian goals; more precisely, resources allocated to campaign versus expected tactical gains to achive a stratagic goals. Without knowing both Ukrainian and Russian deployments, I am sure not even Zelensky himself can define "success" as of this moment..

    If, say, Ukrainian plan is a simple attrition game by just "trading" Russian equipment with their western supplied equipment, then measure of success is how much equipment Russians lost. This plan would not be as stupid as it may sound, because a) Western reserves and military industry and Ukrainian troop numbers eclipse Russia's a few times over, b) it would serve US as well; they would be weakening their potential enemy without facing consequences of territorial changes. This is actually a sustainable (and winnable) strategy. 3 years into war if your enemy has no tanks or artillery left to fight back, you've already won the war.

    If territorial changes is also within goals, then its a balance of how much equipment lost to gain that territory. In an extreme case, lets say Ukraine took Melitopol at cost of the entirety of western supplied equipment and air defenses, without really hurting Russia's military capabilities. Is this a success?? For an outside observer, its beyond impossible to anwer "what would count as success" even AFTER the battles over let alone right now.

    And thinking railway hubs or highways as ultimate strategic goals of entire campaigns? Please, we are not living in 1940s.

  8. @acmhw

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Somebody please get this channel a new microphone

  9. @numikonomel

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    what nonsence is this? ukraine "occupying" the towns on the left bank of Dnipro? bruv u can't occupy ur own territory

  10. @nikkip46

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    The only way there will be peace is for the counter-offensice to fail and ukrainian morale to plummit. Let's hope for peace!

  11. @aig9672

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Your reverb is ducked up bro u need a new mixer 😂

  12. @jovanlipovatz4503

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Success would be handing over Zel. and the rest of the cartel. Self determination for regions. Peace and reconstruction.

  13. @TheIT221

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    I’m really curious on what Ukrainian troops on the Russian border do all day… do they just yell and cuss at each other from across the border or something?

  14. @qrfbsca

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    I am truly begging you to learn how to pronounce these placenames

  15. @xenofonkarykis8417

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    So, success is any situation where we continue to pay to arm Ukraine? Surely success is a situation where they no longer need weapons, and we no longer have to spend money to send. Anyhow, I take it we're setting the bar very low, success is now a bridgehead here, or a 5 mile pushback there (that's what's described in the video), because things are probably not quite what has been presented in our media since the start of the war, cause not long ago success was restoring the pre 2014 or at least the post 2014 borders

  16. @quinnjackson9252

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    The idea of the west not supplying weapons is so stupid. We are all in on supporting Ukraine. I don't know who started the rumor that the west will supply less weapons for some reason, but they are incredibly stupid.

  17. @adrianaspalinky1986

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Nope, I ignored most of the vidro

  18. @xanders.3810

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    This is disappointing, i don't know shit about any of this but I thought they were capable of taking more than a couple of small towns with western equipment

  19. @hdlc4635

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Success for Zelensky would be getting another $100 billion from Joe Biden for him and his allies to stash in Swiss bank accounts

  20. @beelan101

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Reliable supply lines across the dnipro river is a fantasy for both sides… The Russians couldn't supply their troops across the river in Kherson, why do we think Ukraine will do any better?

  21. @aaronhousley7178

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Crimea is the only thing worth anything. So I’m pretty sure a fake to the north and go, for a cut off of Crimea .

  22. @Spacemongerr

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Kherson is pronounced Herr-sonn, not Ku-z'n.

  23. @TornadoOfCards

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a successful counteroffensive. Looking at that map, the Russians have too much of Ukrainian territory.

  24. @sebastianaminoff9703

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Thanks!

  25. @Joey-ct8bm

    February 19, 2024 at 12:09 am

    Ukraine needs to take ever inch except for the Donbass and Crimea first. Russian forces are more likely to retreat in those area's. They need a lot more weapons for Crimea and the Donbass from the west. You would need a much bigger airforce to take Crimea. It's basically a Island that would be very hard to take without bombing it or without paratroopers. I would definitely leave Crimea to conquer at the very end.

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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