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Can we Trust Russia’s Economic Data?

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Despite ongoing sanctions and a struggling invasion, the Kremlin continues to play down the impact it’s had on their economy, but there’s reason to be skeptical of this. So in this video, we discuss whether we can trust Russia’s relatively positive data.

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1 – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/white-house-sanctions-crushed-russia-b2033267.html
2 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-russia-ukraine-war.html
3 – https://www.ft.com/content/fe5fe0ed-e5d4-474e-bb5a-10c9657285d2
4 – https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/imfs-outlook-russia-is-too-rosy-be-true-2023-02-10/
5 – https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-blocks-economic-data-hiding-effect-of-western-sanctions-11650677765
6 – https://www.ft.com/content/42b53987-8280-469e-8014-9ddb0c98463b
7 – https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/13/russia-economy-sanctions-gdp-war-ukraine-disinformation-statistics/
8 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/russian-economy-shrank-2-1-last-year-less-than-once-expected?leadSource=uverify%20wall
9 – https://www.intellinews.com/more-controversy-as-rosstat-upgrades-russian-gdp-growth-to-a-six-year-high-155852/
10 – https://www.intellinews.com/rosstat-revises-2020-gdp-contraction-to-milder-3-y-y-4q20-data-points-to-strong-recovery-momentum-207142/
11 – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296
12 – https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth

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34 Comments

34 Comments

  1. @senoner90

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    I'd be curious to hear what you think of Ukraine's economic data. According to sources like TradingEconomics, indicators like Business Confidence are similar to before the war and Consumer Confidence actually went up!
    Sounds very weird to me.

  2. @jimmyl7511

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Got to be honest, I am a Brit living in Moscow, we are doing fine, the facts are as follows.
    – Sanctions did nothing, almost nobody cares apart from people who find it difficult obtaining Schengen visa's.
    – Purchasing power is better here than in the UK if you were to take the average wage against what it can buy.
    – Russia today isn't the same as it was before the sanctions, it's in a period of extraordinary growth, with new Science facilities, factories and entire neighbourhoods popping up everywhere.
    – The Malls are busy and bags are full.
    – General sense of optimism is in the air, people on the ground even thought we wouldn't stand the sanctions, yet, we did, people were surprised at first, now we've kind of turned our backs on the west just waiting for this to be over so we can go in our own direction and the west can go in it's direction.

    You only have to walk around the streets of any of the cities of Russia in 2023 and you can clearly see the place developing it's infrastructure much faster than ever before, absolutely revamping the cities, I remember when people used to say "RuSsIa HaS No InFrAsTRuCTure" – All of the things the west used to laugh at Russia for, Russia is now correcting, and correcting very well, very quickly, they took it personally it seems.

    Moving forward, I'm rather optimistic about our outlook, we seem to have a societal direction and there is far more confidence these days in that direction, we can only wish the west the best, but in short, we're doing alright!

  3. @zeussinternational

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    I been in Russia for almost two months and their economy is better than any western country..
    Can't believe what western media always says..

  4. @Evrastrim

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Short answer: yes. Statistical data is easily cross-checked not only by IMF or World Bank but by any person with a degree in statistics.
    The real question is: Can we psychologically accept the truth if it brutally doesn't fit our expectations and heart our self-esteem? 😀

  5. @verdi2310

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Are you sure that brightness of cities at night is relevant im countries where oil and agrobusiness are a relevant part of the economy?

  6. @deniscortes9200

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    IN A TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM LIKE RUSSIA AND CHINA EVERYTHING IS A FAKE. NONE STATE AGENCY REPORT IS TRUSTWORTHY.

  7. @bircruz555

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    We trust Russian economic data more than we trust TLDR News EU.

  8. @laksi0505

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    I think Ukraine will collapse sooner than Russia.
    Ukraine will soon run out of soldiers to defend the entire border and then the Russians will continue to Poland.

  9. @elizabethnilsson1815

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    return the title and ask CAN WE TRUT THE US DATA answer is NO, NEVER.

  10. @bonito34

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Notorical liars😂😂😂

  11. @bonniec.ddisashi6686

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    The USA has been lying about their GDP growth data -158 trillion in national true debt

  12. @bonito34

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Coffinmakers earn a lot

  13. @jabirmahdi3546

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    How dare Russia's economy doing better?!!😂😂😂 Fucking American propaganda machines

  14. @NeferPrufer

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    продвигаю эту дезинформацию потому что это весело

  15. @luckyea7

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Russia's GDP growth in May 2023, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 5.4% year-on-year after an increase of 3.4% in April, according to the ministry's review "On the Current Situation in the Economy" published on Wednesday.

    The main support for the economy in May was provided by manufacturing, wholesale trade and the construction sector.

    The main positive contribution to the growth of manufacturing output, as in the previous month, continued to be made by the machine-building and metallurgical complexes (+7.1 percentage points and +3.1 percentage points, respectively).

    The machine-building sector became the main growth driver. All divisions of the complex show good results: the production of computers and electronic equipment grew by 31.5%, electrical equipment – by 49.5%, the production of motor vehicles increased by 86.3%.

    “The economic program announced by Vladimir Putin in his message creates an opportunity for the Russian economy to quickly move to growth rates of 7-10% per annum. Moreover, we believe that as early as 2023‒2024, the Russian economy can show GDP growth of 4‒6%,” the Expert publication estimates the possible economic growth rates.

    The Expert publication also noted that the reasons for such growth are structural in nature: “The structural changes in the economic system of the Russian Federation themselves are obvious. This is an active import substitution in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It has been going on for more than a year, it accelerated sharply in 2021, after overcoming the covid crisis, and gained an incredible, still unconscious pace last year. The second shift is a turn to the East. There is also an obvious increase in export flows to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.”

    It was also noted that “the third shift is less noticeable – which began only in the second half of 2022, the change in the structure of the country's internal income in favor of a wide range of citizens. It is associated primarily with a sharp increase in demand for labor resources and the subsequent increase in wages. Finally, the fourth source of structural shifts is the accession of new regions, investments in these regions and the development of their industry and agriculture.

    According to the results of April, the salaries of citizens of the Russian Federation increased by 10% in annual terms.

    In May 2023, the inflation rate in Russia amounted to 0.31%, which is 0.07 less than in April 2023. At the same time, inflation since the beginning of 2023 amounted to 2.38%, and on an annualized basis – 2.50%.

    In 2023 Russia ranks 1st in terms of inflation in the world.

    For the first time since 2014, Russia has returned to the top ten largest economies in the world. At the end of 2022, Russia produced goods and services worth 2.3 trillion dollars, which allowed it to take eighth place in this indicator. The last time the country was in the top ten in 2014 was ninth with a GDP of $2.05 trillion. In 2021, she was ranked 11th.

    The combined wealth of Russia's richest entrepreneurs has grown by $16.573 billion since the beginning of the year.

    In 2022, there were 22 more billionaires in Russia. For the second year in a row, the number of rich people around the world has been declining, but in Russia there are more and more of them. The combined wealth of Russian billionaires has grown from $353 billion to $505 billion.

    In June, revenues to the treasury of the Russian Federation were the highest since the beginning of the year. The budget was replenished by 2.56 trillion rubles.

    It is noteworthy that the growth in income occurred due to revenues not related to the export of energy resources. The so-called non-oil and gas revenues in June exceeded 2 trillion rubles and amounted to almost 80% of all monthly budget revenues. In total, according to the results of the first half of the year, it was possible to collect 9 trillion rubles of income not related to the oil and gas sector. This is 18% more than last year.

    A lot of things happened that the Russian leadership wanted, namely:

    – decrease in the share of oil and gas revenues in the budget structure;

    – weakening of the ruble;

    – a decrease in the share of currencies of unfriendly countries and an increase in the share of the ruble in foreign trade operations.

    The weakening of the ruble leads to an increase in budget revenues of the Russian Federation and increases the competitiveness of Russian companies.

    The Central Bank published statistics on the currency component in Russia's foreign trade. The data are quite positive. I would even say unexpectedly positive.

    Thus, the share of the ruble in export operations to Asia is 36.3%, to Europe – 49.8%, to America (mainly Latin America) – 17.6%, and to Africa – 24.2%.

    If you look at the general statistics, then 39.1% of Russian exports go in rubles, 26.9% – in the currencies of friendly states, and the remaining 34% – in the currencies of unfriendly countries (mainly the dollar and the euro). The numbers are really impressive, because back in 2021 the share of the ruble was about 13%, and the share of eurodollars was 85%. And, most importantly, the pace is not slowing down. It can be expected that by the end of the year the share of the ruble will exceed half of all export calculations.

    As for imports, here the share of the ruble is 30.4%, the share of currencies of friendly states – 33.7%, unfriendly – 35.9%. The currencies of friendly states are growing very seriously (by 8.5 times compared to 2021).

    At such rates, Russians will soon not use the dollar and the euro at all, and they will not be interested in them, as well as their exchange rate, which will no longer affect inflation in the Russian Federation.

    For a large share of oil and gas revenues, Russians often criticized their government, as well as for using a large share of the currencies of unfriendly countries in foreign trade. And now the government of the Russian Federation manages to get rid of this criticism.

    To weaken the ruble, the Russian authorities allowed exporters to credit foreign exchange earnings to foreign accounts from June 6. The weakening of the ruble was also influenced by the increase in demand from foreign companies that leave the Russian market and sell their business in Russia. They buy dollars for rubles for their withdrawal. Foreign companies sell their business at a big discount and give their market share to Russian companies. As a result, the demand for Russian products is growing, and the volumes and revenues of Russian companies are growing. Foreign companies used to spend a lot of money on advertising in order to increase their share in the Russian market, and now they gave it all away without a fight and sold their business to Russian companies for well below the market price.

    In 2023, the Moscow Exchange index increased by 34% to 2900 points. In 2023, the number of individuals with brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange increased by 3 million. The share of individuals in the share trading volume was 76%. Although in July 2021, almost three-quarters of Russian shares traded on the exchange belong to unfriendly non-residents.

    Sber approved the largest dividends in the history of the bank. But the bank is not the only company to pay record dividends in 2023, experts say. Eight companies recommended that their shareholders pay record dividends for 2022. Dividends continue to be a strong support factor for the Russian market, which offers a dividend yield of around 8% on average. Thus, the "dividend banquet" of 2023 continues. If earlier in 2021 the dividends of Russian companies were mainly received by foreign companies, now Russians receive them.

    From January to May 2023, the National Wealth Fund increased by 2,041 billion rubles and reached its maximum size for the year in May, when it rose to 10,435 billion rubles. The volume of the national welfare fund in June increased by 317.124 billion rubles and reached 12.67 trillion. In June, the fund's account with the Bank of Russia received income from the placement of NWF funds in ordinary shares of Sberbank and on deposits with VEB.RF, as well as in securities of Russian issuers related to the implementation of self-sustaining infrastructure projects, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

    In January-June 2023, the international reserves of the Russian Federation increased by $429 million.

    Since the beginning of the year, the external debt of the Russian Federation has decreased by 8.7 percent and in July approached the minimum of the end of 2006.

    The Russian leadership could only dream of such good indicators in the economy a couple of years ago. What the Russian leadership could not do for many years, the sanctions did in such a short time.

  16. @abarthspider3479

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    When does Russia ever speak the truth? lol

  17. @user-le8md3xv5m

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Yes russians always lie

  18. @user-le8md3xv5m

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Yes russians always lie

  19. @user-le8md3xv5m

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Yes russians always lie

  20. @jamshidpirouzi8101

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    putin baby ist krank gegen putin for iran und china putin baby ist krank

  21. @10countboxing46

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    To be fair retail spending may have dropped because many big brands are no longer available.

  22. @SportZFan4L1fe

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Russia has been dealing with sanctions since 2014 and preparing for the West to go blitzkrieg with the Sanctions. Russia is doing fine and is projected by the IMF to grow between .05% and 2% in 2023. Unlike the UK and Germany who are in Recession 😂.

  23. @CAMSLAYER13

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Literally every country lies about how well its doing. A whif in insecurity and people start to panic

  24. @Mrqwerty2109

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    TLDR, did you know that you misspelled the thumbnail?

  25. @adonisprashad2048

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    What a big joke. This was to give russia time to organize ahia attact .and so it was..once you with putin they always with him .

  26. @rentoshine2038

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    You Talk pure bs and Fake News Dude

  27. @rfotus9207

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Does Ruzzia ever tell the truth about anything?

  28. @JuanLegendre-ey9ty

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    We should never trust Russia on what they say. Rule never trust your enemies on what they say on their economy.

  29. @KhaalixD

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Great video!

  30. @user-iu3vd6ft5b

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    i think we can trust russia more than the west and the ukrnatzos, in fact this website is always wrong in its military and economy predictions always bias and russophobic pack in and make kitten videos and give us a break.

  31. @ivantchakalski4102

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Russia lies about there economy as much as everybody else

  32. @mariostefani2112

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Russo falando é sinônimo de Russo mentindo. Sempre.

  33. @dkupke

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Duh

  34. @B3RyL

    February 20, 2024 at 7:34 am

    The moment I read the first four words of this title, I knew the answer was "no" even before the I finished reading the whole sentence. They've done this before. They pretend they're doing great using creative accounting, but you can only do that for so long. Once foreign and domestic investors realize what is happening, their economy won't just crash, it'll vanish into oblivion.

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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