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Why Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive Could be Very Near
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With relatively stable frontlines in the war, many are talking about the prospects of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive with the imminent arrival of newly Western-trained troops. So what would this actually look like? And what would it need to succeed?
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1 – https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
2 – https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1647853526679187456?s=20
3 – https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230312-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-ukraine-readies-counteroffensive-as-russia-advances-in-bakhmut
4 – https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html
5 – https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-reveals-timetable-counteroffensive-1786970
6 – https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1609850386629771265/photo/1
7 – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/10/world/europe/russia-ukraine-offensives-maps.html
8 – https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-field-fortifications-in-ukraine
9 – https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/16/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-drawing-near
10 – https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193092
11 – https://telegra.ph/Tolko-chestnyj-boj-nikakogo-dogovornyaka-04-14
12 – https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-we-will-launch-counteroffensive-when-ready-say-ukraine/WHHRQXCHINBSXKB2P5AP3D6ZMQ/
13 – https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/?sh=585120966ffc
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Bakhmut and Avdiivka
03:09 When Will it Happen?
04:34 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next?
05:34 Will it Succeed?
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We take a closer look at why relations soured between the two countries, and how Azerbaijan has been seeking to undermine France since.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Since being elected, Meloni has had a major influence over the EU’s immigration policy, but the new Migration and Asylum Pact may have major consequences for Italy. So what exactly is in the new pact? And has Meloni’s hardline policy backfired?
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Sources:
https://newsbriefing.eu/politics/meloni-hardens-migration-rhetoric-as-far-right-rival-vannacci-gains-ground
https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/number-of-migrants-rises-repatriations-up-34-per-cent-in-the-first-six-months-AJVKjkm?refresh_ce=1
https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and-asylum/pact-migration-and-asylum_en
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:180:0031:0059:en:PDF
https://italytelegraph.com/posts/italy-blocks-80000-migrant-transfers-what-the-eu-pact-really-changes-for-residents
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/21/sweden-plans-to-send-migrants-to-italy-france-and-spain-reject-dublin-transfers
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/21/sweden-plans-to-send-migrants-to-italy-france-and-spain-reject-dublin-transfers
https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/08/12/five-eu-member-states-are-considering-building-a-repatriation-centre-in-uganda/
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/10/04/giorgia-meloni-pushes-italy-s-migration-strategy-as-a-model_6728172_4.html
https://www.irreview.org/articles/2024/10/27/giorgia-meloni-is-offshoring-migration-to-solve-italys-immigration-concerns-now-the-rest-of-europe-is-interested-too
https://www.frontex.europa.eu/media-centre/news/news-release/frontex-irregular-border-crossings-down-26-in-2025-europe-must-stay-prepared-lyKpVb
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/08/italy-disastrous-offshore-agreement-with-albania-must-serve-as-a-wake-up-call-to-end-eus-cruel-migration-plans/
https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/08/vannacci-sanchez-is-right-on-immigration-meloni-is-a-fiasco/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/deputy-premier-salvini-rome-not-193326174.html
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/21/sweden-plans-to-send-migrants-to-italy-france-and-spain-reject-dublin-transfers
https://italytelegraph.com/posts/italy-blocks-80000-migrant-transfers-what-the-eu-pact-really-changes-for-residents
https://italianismo.com.br/com-44-meloni-lidera-avaliacao-enquanto-partidos-perdem-espaco/
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Over the past few weeks, there have been many reports of Russian hybrid incidents across Europe. With reported drone incursions and explosives at a German airport, we’re looking into the escalating Russian hybrid war and why it no longer feels so hybrid.
📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Sources:
POLITICO: Russia’s ‘hybrid’ war isn’t so hybrid
https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-hybrid-war-on-europe-is-starting-to-look-a-lot-less-hybrid/
Germany says Russia responsible for drone incident
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ylm3m67n2o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/germany/article/2026/09/01/germany-blames-russia-for-airport-drone-incident-hits-back-with-sanctions_6757058_146.html?srsltid=AfmBOorxo7cxCO7l0TFHlXxatD1xyz1S0UqgldCRST2dfYnQWOCJYFzH
EU-NATO talks on German drone incident
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/02/von-der-leyen-russian-drone-incidents-in-europe-are-the-new-normal
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/01/von-der-leyen-pledges-response-to-russian-hybrid-attacks-ahead-of-rutte-meeting
Russian hybrid warfare (Aug/Sep 2026)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/31/poland-opens-terror-probe-into-fire-at-drone-factory
https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-jet-blasts-drone-near-offshore-gas-production-platform/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/20/nato-jets-scrambled-as-drone-enters-romanian-airspace
Analysis
https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2026/07/why-russia-could-escalate-hybrid-warfare-against-europe
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/where-and-how-putin-could-expand-his-war-in-europe-beyond-ukraine/
Russian drone incidents (September 2025)
https://youtu.be/bnt3CNXMPo0?si=RwEWSEx_4Vt69gSb
00:00 – Introduction
01:28 – Context
04:34 – Why It Doesn’t Feel So Hybrid
07:38 – Too Long
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After years of stagnation, German’s economy might finally look to be on the up. In this video, we’re taking a look at the latest data and ask whether Germany has finally turned the corner.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Sources
German GDP data 2019-2025
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/23/germanys-much-ballyhooed-autumn-of-reforms-is-a-damp-squib
Germany polls
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/08/31/how-the-alternative-for-germany-would-govern
Revised destatis data
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
https://substack.com/home/post/p-211829645
IMF estimates for GDP growth in 2026
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/EU/EURO/EUQ/IDN
Ifo institute data
https://www.ifo.de/en/facts/2026-06-18/ifo-economic-forecast-summer-2026-energy-price-increase-acting-brake-fiscal-policy
https://www.ifo.de/en/survey-results
Germany trade data
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/deu/germany/trade-balance-deficit
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports-to-china
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/DEU/Year/LTST/Summarytext
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports
Indices
https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/german-manufacturing-growth-accelerates-august-orders-surge-pmi-shows
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-pmi
https://www.ifo.de/en/survey-results
source
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Yesterday, Iceland held a referendum on restarting negotiations to rejoin the European Union, 13 years after negotiations were frozen. With the results now in, we’re taking a look at what happened and what it means for the future.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Sources:
https://www.dw.com/en/icelands-eu-vote-a-nation-divided-over-europe/a-78285133
https://www.reuters.com/world/narrow-majority-icelanders-back-eu-membership-talks-poll-shows-ahead-referendum-2026-08-26/
https://www.ruv.is/english/2025-01-09-poll-majority-support-eu-negotiations-432591
https://nordics.info/show/artikel/icelands-relationship-with-the-eu
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/country/iceland
https://newunionpost.eu/2026/02/26/iceland-referendum-eu-accession-talks/#:~:text=hold%20a%20referendum%20on%20reopening%20Iceland%E2%80%99s%20EU%20accession%20talks
https://cb.is/news-and-publications/article/monetary-bulletin-2026-3
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/iceland-hikes-key-rate-to-8-to-lower-risk-of-prices-spiraling
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/iceland-eu-referendum-3fqw92st9
https://thefishingdaily.com/icelandic-fishing-industry-news/icelandic-fishing-industry-points-to-ireland-in-eu-warning/
https://www.reuters.com/world/fish-ships-sovereignty-iceland-weighs-its-european-future-2026-08-19/#:~:text=defined%20Iceland’s%20independence%20since%20it%20broke%20away%20from%20Denmark
https://island-esb.is/en/kostnadur/
https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-08-29-iceland-rejects-eu-accession-talks-485377
00:00 – Introduction
01:09 – Context
03:06 – The Two Sides
05:35 – The Final Result
07:38 – Proton Mail
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@Markomilic205
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Don't be a pessimist. Lol
@polishkingdom6514
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
3 weeks no offensive yet
@chayoto
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Unfortunate Russian Igor "pickled cucumber" Gherkin.
@mhgaffney
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
More propaganda. Indeed the first words out of this guy's mouth are 180 degrees wrong. Russia's offensive has not exhausted itself. Russia's offensive has yet to start. Because of a mild winter the ground did not freeze sufficiently solid to launch the offensive last January. Also, heavy spring rains have created deep mud which makes it difficult to move heavy equipment like tanks – which weight more than 50 tons. Russia is now waiting for dry weather — later in May or June. When they finally launch it, what remains of Ukraine's military will collapse very quickly. The US has caused this nightmare. Demand an end to the war! Call your Congress person and senator. Demand that they debate the war on the floor of the House and Senate! Peace now!
@chairde
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Why can’t the Ukrainians just go full guerrilla warfare.?
@MrRocketguitar
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
I am for Ukraine in every way I detest every thing Russia has done. America and the EU drip feed weapons and deny what Ukraine really needs. Biden is a weak old fool. Troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and his remarks at the time were a green flag for every paria nation in the world. Give all to Ukraine that it needs now to defeat Russia. Every day wasted is lives lost in Ukraine. Russia has no right or claims over Ukraine Its reasons are all false.
@patleo123
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
What counterattack ??
@Inoffensive_name
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
April 31st
@swisstony607
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
NATO base in Ukraine was blown to bits that’s why! 😂
@markkrajnik
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
FYI its going to be IMO two counter offensives one with Equipment delivery last year early this year to Ukraine and second with all the new stuff flowing in starting in March!!
@silentdeath7847
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
100 ukranian troops recently arrived in Norway, 1/7 groups of 100 at a time to be trained here 🇸🇯❤️🇺🇦
@JohanMsWorld
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
They key factor iswhen they start a information blsckout from s certain area of the frontline – Thats the biggest telltsle that a offensive is on the way. J.
@zebratoast278
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
I really appreciate the style of tl;dr, but could you try to get the pronunciation of names and places closer to the original, otherwise it is difficult to connect news stories from non-english sources. It is really a minor thing, keep up the good work 👍
@hassontubegamer8929
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Will on paper ukraine counter attack will fail miserably
But since the beginning of this war Ukrainians were overperforming
And russians kept on underperforming
Days will tell who is gonna prevail
@bettercallsaul-codman
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
When we start to look for peace?
@isrealmendez4368
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
The Ukrainians are gonna lose but I'm talking about The puppet of the United stathey will all be inanimand Ukraine will be given back to the Ukrainian people the economy in America will collapse China will win the war against the United States everybody will moving to Mexico into Latin americand the dollar will collapse Good luck to it is that think otherwise
@brianmurray1395
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
The only way for this to end is for Russias planning to go very fast and explode out blitz and go right to the border of Poland to totally eliminate the Ukrainians oh I mean the US. Just like they did to the Krauts. Russia knows what to expect and knows what they have to do now! NATO has just created the largest hard hitting military force in the world. They will crush everything in the way….I hope .. we all hope. Get rid of the Nazi cancer once and for all. When western forces start coming home by the hoards in bags their countries will retract. I believe NATO I mean the USA is falling apart. The good people of US don’t want any war and WILL NOT SEND their sons and daughters to a slaughter.
@CheylhyunGaang-ed9tc
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Will be attack cccp Moscow next target
Will not stopping guaranteed
@angus7278
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
The odds of Ukraine actually beating Russia are about the same as Mexico beating the USA. The numbers (population, weapons, GDP) just aren’t there.
@ahmedalsharman
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Ukraine will not exist as country soon . It will be split between 3 countries. Russia , Poland & Hungary . problem is solved
@stevestev8162
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
KEKW KEKW KEKW !!!
@stevestev8162
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
KEKW ukr have more casulties
@klsar1
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Zeclownsky is delusional. Who will supply arms to a loser? Nato can’t even get their act together. Biden is clueless. Just call up Putin, ask for forgiveness and admit defeat. Save your pathetic army from further death.
@LiemNguyen-qr6bq
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Still dreaming.
@MrZombiekiller23
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
These FAB500 bombs are literally dumb bombs made smart w cheap to make wings the Russians have thousands of them, they only have a few of the very expensive kinzhal missiles that are hypersonic but theFAB 500S ARE GOING to be raining nonstop until the end of the world, and expect carpet bombing now that the air defense of Ukraine is all but gone
@MrZombiekiller23
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
You say the Russian advance stalled but the encircled it on 3 sides and there are families of whole battalions protesting in kiev over the poor condition of Ukr troops in avdiivka
@MrZombiekiller23
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
It's interesting how this counter offensive is being hyped up like a new release of someone's SoundCloud mixtape, delayed endlessly and believed to be as big the second coming of christ😂
@RavingFan
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
when ground is hard enough.
@geraldfrieberg7921
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Thanks for nothing.
@Umoja77
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Stop lying!
@DauthEldrvaria
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Why should they stop when they could finally get rid of Russia hindering their freedom? Keep going I say. As an American you have my support at least. If Mexico or Canada wanted to Annex huge swaths of America I’d want the same form Ukraine!
@darrenwheeler8638
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
anything ukraine does will be stopped quickly
@shuaibnaqvi5168
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
US trained forces failed everywhere in Afghanistan Iraq Syria ,eukrine is no different
@vitali2127
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Did you saw a news that one of those Hypersonic middles took out a bunker near Kiev. 300 people were killed and a lot of NATO Generals and advisors. Lots of reports out, though msm still not saying anything just like…
@InterWebGuy99
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
You have no idea whether or not the Ukrainian counter-offensive will make significant gains or not. You have no idea whether the UAF will have a 3-to-1 troop ratio or not. My take is once the counter-offensive starts, Russian forces will immediately start to retreat and a rout will ensue, followed by a quick end to the war by late summer. The Russians won't have the troops, equipment or will to continue.
@QuartermasterReviews
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
It's Vagner with a V. Can we just stop calling them Wag-ner. You know Vagner like the composer.
@WatchmansArchive
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Avdiivka Frontline have been in the same place since the begging of the war. They didn't start encircling it in March thats a lie. Its been the same long before March.
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Ukraine lost ofensif = lost money from west
@xNotUglyTzy
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
How can a LOSER attack?😀😀😀
@Ukruins
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Dream on.
@Klote3241
February 28, 2024 at 12:15 pm
Counteroffensive has already started according to Ukrainian MoD Spokesperson. this also can be seen with current probing attacks and Russian troops retreating in certain areas due to constant attacks.