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Who Will France’s Next President Be?
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With Macron in his second and final term as President, the future of French politics following his tenure is very much up in the air. So in this video, we break down who might succeed Macron and assess whether Marine Le Pen might actually win in 2027.
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1 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polling
2 – https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1646209083794505737?s=20
3 – https://www.politico.eu/article/bruno-le-maire-france-president-emmanuel-macron-elysee-palace/
4 – https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/barometre-politique-ipsos-le-point
5 – https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/06/22/francois-ruffin-we-must-not-become-the-left-of-the-big-cities-versus-the-right-and-far-right-of-the-villages_5987659_5.html
6 – https://www.lexpress.fr/politique/exclusif-presidentielle-2027-le-sondage-qui-place-ruffin-devant-melenchon-LXZTLCJ2JJFR3E63HGMLTYRIYE/
7 – https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/1646096421806915588?s=20
8 – https://www.liberation.fr/politique/presidentielle-francois-ruffin-entame-sa-longue-marche-20230419_I5ASH5GIAJETVDHB6WH7APETG4/
9 – https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230405-le-pen-would-beat-macron-if-french-presidential-vote-repeated-poll
10 – http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/si-on-refaisait-voter-aujourdhui-les-francais-ils-eliraient-nettement-marine-le-pen/
11 – https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230405_elabe_bfmtv_les-francais-et-le-climat-politique.pdf
12 – https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230405-le-pen-would-beat-macron-if-french-presidential-vote-repeated-poll
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Macron’s Successor
02:06 The French Left
04:22 The French Right
06:10 What will 2027 Look Like?
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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In this video, we’re going to take a look at the ruling in France and explain why, while it might be good news for Le Pen personally, it is actually probably bad news for the National Rally and thus the French right.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf
Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html
0:00 Why Le Pen’s Return is Bad News for the National Rally
6:40 Sponsor
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@dreggman429
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Marine le pen will win it's inevitable. The entirety of europe is tired of illegals and those who speak up get called as a wacist she's far right on immigration but in anything else she's left centrist
The entirety of Europe is turning right because of mass migration of low skilled people that wreak havoc and hog welfare
@ssssss-ly4fq
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Personally, I'll vote for the RN but I think that the political position doesn't matter : as long as the president tries his best, the country will obviously grow up. Nevertheless, Mélechon is an arrogant person, who calls hate and destruction at each time a piece of the population demonstrates. He won't be good president but good actor of the fall of France.
@1234smileface
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Marine Le Pen will save France
@lucaslevinsky8802
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
leftists can only win with francois
@hugobertrand7348
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Nice analysis, but the main conclusion is that, yes, 2027 is faaar away from now, many changes could occur.
One of the blind spot of the video is the left alliance for the legislative elections, which reshaped the landscape and the power dynamics for hegemony on the left wing.
@Fab807
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
My opinion is that Le Pen is likely to become the next president and here is why.
1/the left is imploding because of Melenchon and his party. They are trying to capitalize on support from French from projects and from foreign origin. The way they are going about it is creating fatal divergences.
2/ le Pen is becoming mainstream. It used to be shameful to vote for her party. She has transformed her father’s party into a populist party with real propositions and they are working hard to have a deep bench.
3/ 60% of France is center-right.
In 2022, le Pen lost 41% to 58% with 28% abstention. To close the gap, le Pen needs 10% more which is only 7% with abstention at 30%. Knowing that Macron can’t run and his party is divided, it is likely that she has an open field. Especially if she continues to manage her communication the way she does.
@djkire5780
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Marine Lepen ❤🇫🇷💪🏻
@RecorderMan91
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Hopefully whoever succeeds him is right wing.
@coco_bold
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
As long as it's not someone from the stupid la France Insoumise or the Rassemblement National, two political stupid destroyers, one by racism, the other one by rich discrimination, they would simply both run down the french economy, not that the traditional parties do a good job anyway, but nothing as bad as compared to what the harmful nightmare the LFI would do or the nefarious RN.
@rimumajumder
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
I support Marry lapen ❤❤❤❤
@budapestkeleti6404
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Marine Putin
@LoriF7759
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Zemmour the next president 🇫🇷❤
@Francebras
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Next stop. A fascist..
@Dimehell
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Le Pen 2027 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@AnneliedeWet
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Marine le Pen is now thr favourite.
@E2E2_E2E2
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
We need Referendums, 10 every season, not this or that President.
Macron ruined France intentionally with buying inflation indexed debt and selling bankable public services + suppressing so much taxes on big companies.
Le Pen is stupid.
Mélenchon is retired.
Ruffin is too kind.
We need direct democracy, representative democracy has been stollen by medias and corruption, everywhere in the world.
@austinreed7343
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Obviously it’s Chees.
@TheDarknessFR
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Macron its actualy dans la sauce
@MrMirville
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Ahmedinejad will be the next president after Macron.
@user-vu9xl2yz4s
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Edouar Philippe popular? Weird : he ruin a lot of people with his COVID politics, 580 Billon lost because he stop the économy!! He was on the staf that manage Areva before and make it collapse. Le Pen is brainless. Mélenchon is a comunist… Idk who will be next but hope none of those for sure.
@mariet.4184
March 1, 2024 at 10:19 am
Apparently, according to some people, Castex (the previous prime minister) would also run for the elections. Because when people ask Emmanuel Macron "who would be your ideal successor ?" his description reminds the one of Castex. But nowadays Castex is at the head of the RATP and seems to be indifferent.