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Why 2024 Will be the Decisive Year for Ukraine
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With many considering the war in Ukraine to be at a stalemate, the prospect of any major developments on the battlefield are slim. So what might the conflict look like in 2024? And what factors could swing the balance of power towards Russia and Ukraine?
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1 – https://samf.substack.com/p/stalemate-zugzwang-and-a-long-middle
2 – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67714719
3 – https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/setting_transatlantic_defence_up_for_success_0.pdf
4 – https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20Dec.,Post%20(WP)%20reported%20Monday.
5 – https://open.spotify.com/episode/5BTnjeudGYgCl2odUEVKOR?si=aeb078c56c824d58
6 – https://uk.yahoo.com/?err=404&err_url=https%3a%2f%2fuk.news.yahoo.com%2feu-falls-well-short-ammunition-160904957.html
7 – https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/20/towns-in-eastern-ukraine-fear-they-will-be-russias-next-target
8 – https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-declares-victory-in-million-artillery-round-mission/
9 – https://www.politico.eu/article/enlistment-a-la-carte-ukrainians-find-flexible-ways-to-fill-the-ranks/
10 – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-us-uk-troops-b2467652.html
11 – https://www.ft.com/content/d2f3b209-22a1-4fb1-bdfe-0ccf7fb0e5fa
12 – https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/19/vladimir-putin-has-been-fighting-not-just-ukraine-but-his-own-people
13 – https://www.thenation.com/article/world/in-russia-clear-signs-of-war-fatigue/
14 – https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-s-military-spending-in-2024-estimated-at-140b-report-shows/3081698
15 – https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
00:00 Introduction
00:53 What Ukraine Looks Like Now
02:11 What Happens Next?
03:42 Factor One: Ammunition
05:17 Factor Two: Manpower
06:47 Factor Three: Money
07:54 Nebula
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf
Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html
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@comment5884
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Ukraine go to the peace talks and forget about USA using you. If you did, im sure you wouldn't be around. So sad this all had to happen. The regular people in Ukraine USA and Russia had no say, really, in all of this. Those people just wanted to be left alone to just live.
@tiborsunavec220
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
yed kokaina man from ua can handle it 🙂
@ngangamuhia3846
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Nothing they said about Ukraine has aged well.
@lz9394
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
I came for the cope and got what i wanted from this channel. Thanks.
@chrimbus71
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
The only thing Ukraine has won and will win is Eurovision , and even then that was rigged for them.
@cringebrudi
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Even if Ukraine wins (which is not possible on the battle field) it will still be a doomed nation.
@user-tg4us3er3o
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Most Americans are sick of funding Ukraine, the US is already in 33 trillion dollars in debt, and more funding for Ukraine would kill us even more. Ukrainian morale isn't doing great, and Europe may also get tired of funding Ukraine, for they are running out of cash. Too many people are dying, Ukraine should just negotiate, it's not worth all of the casualties they are taking.
@jonathanlel9033
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
The major factor is whether the EU and US will actually deliver the weapons they promised. When this happens then Ukraine will push forward.
@louisecorchevolle9241
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
with the resignation of Victoria Nulanit will hopefully be less causalities Thank you for your neoconservative standings whose Boris Johnson cancelled peace talks and is guilty of 300.000 deaths
@ChrisMacaulay-ci8gd
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Ukraine never ever could win that war. The reason why it went forward was because the politicians there and here are scheming and it's a big money laundering they've taken 100 and something billion dollars of our tax money and they want more and you know what the only thing that happened was a bunch of poor Ukrainian families lost their lives. They're Slavic they're Russian okay these people that actor for President should have said we give you can't beat Russia and Rush is over there Rush is right there you can't beat Russia. But the thought of being rich overpowered reason and they decided well we'll just let a bunch of innocent Ukrainian people die so that US elites can get rich and spread the money around.
@ShikiByakko
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Is Russia winning?…
If things go the way we want them to go, Ukraine will win, so there is no reason to worry at all.
@vv93041t
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
The Hopium in the comments is pure entertainment 😂
@sveinndagur
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
No.
@fartsfartington9019
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
According to recent reports everything is fine. The war will be over in 2 weeks and Putin will go to jail.
@jerryrichardson2799
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
This is more like WW l than WW ll. That military planners around the world were surprised by developments in this war is understandable, but clearly many countries were running under a "just in time" mentality. Also highly rational conclusions and assumptions didn't hold when it came to Putin. The problem with "appeasement" is nearly everybody is surprised when it ends.
@ashardalondragnipurake
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
how will the propaganda cope roday
@user-qg7cu1te2c
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
I wonder which planet you are living on to give this assessment.
@explicitbanana
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
So much misinformation in this video.
@jabezhane
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Whilst there is still some Western Taxpayer money to be laundered it will carry on even though doomed to failiure. As long as it all happens 4000+ miles away, who cares if there's still a buck to be made?
@yatarookayama8329
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Easy to … NO !
They have run out of people in their 20 – 40s and not get the 50 year old and women !
@aniruddhsharma8996
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
But there are countries like India and China who helps and support Russia
@wardd836
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Avdviika has zero strategic value 😂 ??
@user-io5ol1hb6d
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Stops to feel seroius this video after word about uslesness of Abdiyevka
@user-sl9uq8rl2t
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
I have to say, being in Russia, this video vastly underastimates Putin's ability for mobilization. Putin now has eliminated all political restraints for doing anything he wants. He could mobilize millions of men and the protests would be minimal. The opinion polls mean nothing because no one would be asking for people's opinions on this matter. And Nadezhdin was never a strong political figure. People are willing to vote for him but not go to the streets.
@DavidELD
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
It took Russia 2 years to go 12 km into Avdiivka.
2 years… 12 km…😂
Ukraine just has to start waiting it out, and now the Russians don’t even want to fly close to the frontline. Ukraine just as to get up in the air now.
@injest1928
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
The US spent between 2.5 and 8 trillion dollars on Afghanistan and Iraq. I don't know why estimates vary so much but regardless, the fact the US spent so much on questionable wars but now won't spend a tiny fraction of that to defend democracy is infuriating.
@injest1928
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Possible outcomes at the upcoming US elections should have featured more in this video, the outcome of the war likely hinges on aid from the US.
@injest1928
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
I support Ukraine but TLDR need to work on their bias slipping into videos, Avdiivka absolutely has strategic value to Russia. You won't be saying it has no strategic value if and when Ukraine take it back so don't say it now.
@user-xb1uh1xn3i
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Whp can ukraine have 200? Their own officials stated around 700-800 thousand if i am not mistaken. While Russia said 600-700
@mgronich948
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Putin and Zelensky are so far apart, a peace is essentially impossible. This is not true. The truth is zelensky is a puppet who is sacrificing his people for the US neocons. The US neocons have no desire for peace in this proxy war. They wish to inflict as much damage to Russia as possible, even to the last Ukrainian.
@ahmadalhusaini4677
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
7 % inflation is dangerously high ? 😂 same as in many developed economies
@philipb2134
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
"winning" here is an abstract concept. Ukraine still existing as an independent nation.
Russia has become whatever is in Putin's twisted mind. He launched the largest-scale military offensive since WWII to "denazify" a government… headed by a Jew, most of whose family was murdered by Nazis.
Putin is a war criminal, plain and simple.
@hieu8276
March 6, 2024 at 9:13 pm
They already won because they did not lose.