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Portugal’s Election: Another Win for the Right in Europe

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On Sunday, Portugal went to the polls for its second election in just over two years, a few months after Antonio Costa’s government collapsed in scandal. In this video, we take a look at the results, what they say about the Portuguese politics, and what’s going to happen next.

Why the Far Right are on the Rise in Portugal – https://youtu.be/MwZOH9ip3Ek

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TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!

//////////////////////

1 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Portuguese_legislative_election
2 – https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/miguel-albuquerque-e-suspeito-de-corrupcao-prevaricacao-e-abuso-de-poder_a1545956
3 – https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/portugal/
4 – https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/03/11/world/politics/luis-montenegro-portugal-right/
5 – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/10/portugal-election-centre-right-coalition-on-course-for-narrow-victory

00:00 – Introduction
00:49 – Context
02:55 – Election Results
06:19 – What Happens Next?
08:04 – Sponsored Content

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. @FlavioSilva-iz6lz

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Chega is just the result of a failed democracy fueled by 2 parties that for decades perpetuated ignorance, nepotism, corruption and poverty , while 2 or 3 small ideologic parties with no real ambitions, played their part, being used as puppets 2 prove us this craap was in fact a democracy. Chega is a nightmare for us Portuguese 2 enjoy, made real by PS and PSD.

  2. @nyshkominternational7085

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    True, housing is in a very poor state in much of Portugal. Pity, since the Portuguese are mostly really nice people, diligent and hard working, friendly and trustworthy, by comparison with the attitude problem one encounters across the border…

  3. @jayhuxley2559

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    AD coalition has to join Chega or to disappear in a few months next election.

  4. @DinisFaria

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    I actually voted in this election! AD ftw.

  5. @goncalosilva958

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    This review is much better than your first video about CHEGA.
    On your first video regarding CHEGA, the party was wrongly classified as far right wing, which isn't.
    The present video is much more accurate.
    Portugal, my country, has lots of corruption issues at the politician level, mainly in the PS (socialist party).
    I hope this will change in the near future.
    Congratulations for your analysis. 🙏🏼

  6. @froggywam

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Good for Portugal, Drug dealers seem to roam and control the streets from what I've seen

  7. @Tsukonin

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    2 historical establishment parties which are corrupt and led Portugal into the mess of a situation it's currently in. Plus the invasion of the country by muslims and third world single young men made violence and crime skyrocket, which is directly the result of these 2 parties' decisions.

  8. @joaopaulosilverio1680

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    The globalist socialist government destroyed Portuguese society. Issues such as security, uncontrolled immigration, corruption, housing ,health service in chaos and low wages destroyed the country …

  9. @jeffreyzervos6938

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Because we're all sick of these left-wing Marxist policies being rammed down our throat under the guise of being liberal

  10. @MrColmarino

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE! LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE!! everytime there is a right leader that wins the media aparatus treats it like a danger to the country. YOU ARE THE DANGER. If the people want a right goverment, let them have a right goverment !!!

  11. @DGAMINGDE

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    As mentioned by others D'Hond doesn't explain the unproportionality, but D'Hond in electorates does.
    The result of the election was:
    AD: 79
    PS: 77
    CHEGA:48
    IL: 8
    BE: 5
    CDU: 4
    LIVRE: 4
    PAN: 1

    The simple nationwide D'Hond result would be:
    AD: 71 (-8)
    PS: 69 (-8)
    CHEGA: 43 (-5)
    IL: 12 (+4)
    CDU: 7 (+3)
    LIVRE: 7 (+3)
    PAN: 4 (+3)
    ADN: 3 (+3)

    ADN (a far-right party) which got almost as many votes as PAN didn't get any seats.

    The effect of the electorates can easily be seen if you look at the result by electorates. The 3 big parties AD, PS and CH won seats in virtually every electorate (PS in every single won, AD and CHEGA in every electorate but one). The smaller parties on the other hand (IL, BE, CDU, LIVRE, PAN and ADN) got all of their seats in the electorates of Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Setúbal and Aveiro, which happen to be the 5 largest electorate.

    In smaller electorates the result is actually pretty crazy.
    The electorate of Beja for example had the following result:
    PS: 31.7%
    CH: 21.6%
    AD: 16.7%
    CDU: 15.0%
    BE 4.4%

    but seats were:
    PS: 1 Seat
    CH: 1 Seat
    AD: 1 Seat
    CDU: 0 Seats
    BE: 0 Seats

    Because the electorate is only 3 seats you get the crazy result that its actually mathematically correct that both PS and AD should get 1 seat, because of the way the system works.

    To clear up confusion you have to calculate the actual seats based on the electoral vote the parties got.
    PS: 0.95 Seats

    CH: 0.65 Seats

    AD: 0.50 Seats

    CDU: 0.45 Seats

    BE 0.13 Seats

    As you notice, no one got enough seats to be even entitled to 1 seat. 32% of 3 is less than 1. So we have to look at who is closest to 1, which is PS. Next closest is CH, who gets seat 2. Third is confusingly AD with its 0.5 seats, because despite PS getting double the vote of AD, AD is technically closer to its 1 seat, than anyone else is to their 1 or PS and CH are to their second.

    Conversely CDU got almost as many votes as AD. But we already split the 3 seats to the parties that deserve it most. The problem of course is that essentially half the votes of PS were actually pointless, 5% of CHEGA voters could just have stayed home and they would still have gotten the seat, AD needed every single vote, because their lead to the CDU was very close and despite carrying 15% of all votes, which is significant every single CDU voter wasted their vote. Its in fact so wasted that if half far-left voters just voted PS instead of CDU, PS would have gotten 2 seats and AD 0.

    I am sorry but a system which can give these weird results just by tactically voting we have a problem. This can easily be fixed if something like 10% of seats are just levelling seats btw. The electorates aren't the problem. My favorite electoral system (Denmark) actually has electorates and even the possibility to vote for just a candidate. But because its so good and an open list, Denmark is actually the only country with both the advantage of local candidates like in FPTP while having a parliament based on proportional vote for parties. More nations should just copy their system. Its the gold standard.

  12. @markdowding5737

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Guys, you didn't talk about the best part. Apparently, thousands of people confused the coalition AD with another similarly named party ADN, which like Chega is also anti-establishment. ADN did not manage to elect a single MP but some analysts suspect they might have made the AD lose at least 3 MPS due to the confusion.

  13. @portugalgamermanel3404

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Portuguese here, I think the two parties (PS, AD) need finally to mix in one, and accept some laws of each. some people of AD are old school. that's a big issue. let's see what happens and what AD will do with the power this time.

  14. @Hereford1642

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Saying to 20% of your population that their views and vote are unacceptable does not exactly scream democracy does it?
    No wonder people become cynical.

  15. @raincrowlee

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Farming subsidies in the current environment are much more right wing than left wing. Farmers have aligned themselves with the right wing parties across Europe (and in America and Canada), and the parties are returning the favor with the subsidies.

  16. @cessactdm

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    RULE BRITANIA, BRITANIA RULE THE WAVES

  17. @thearousedeunuch

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    0:13 Incorrect logo. Yes, that is PSD's logo, but they won alongside the PPM (Monarchists) and CDS-PP; their logos should be there too, or replaced with an AD logo (that's the name of their alliance).

  18. @BhajanLalSharma-ej4ht

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    PSD

  19. @vascobranco5296

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Chega is not Eurosceptic. In reality there's only 2 parties that are against the EU and those are the far-left parties (Bloco de Esquerda e CDU).

  20. @nickylouwagie7126

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Here in Belgium we also have a Cordon Sanitaire against the far right. Now they are leading in the polls, the question is if it will finally collapse. Mayby this can also be an interesting video 🙂

  21. @KW-oc3se

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    After the Netherlands, it's Portugal. Right-wing is winning all over the world. All thanks to the rise of woke culture and bonhomie between the peaceful community and so-called liberals.

  22. @Sassssky

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    As soon yoy said infrastructure minister i was like what surely…. yes he was involved lmao

  23. @DutchPlanDerLinde

    March 12, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    Why is portugal such a mess? Its so sad, such a beautiful country

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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