Trump’s Plan for a “Tiered” NATO Explained

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Some NATO members are concerned about Trump’s Bergen Group becoming a VIP club. We take a look at whether Trump is trying to split NATO, if he even could, and what it could mean for the future of the alliance.

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Sources:

Allies left out:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/30/trump-nato-allies-left-out-01100310
https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/05/us-meeting-in-poland-excluding-france-uk-baltic-risks-dividing-nato
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/britain-excluded-us-talks-nato-120655191.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-allies-push-back-against-us-led-nato-vip-club/

“Loyalty test” questionnaire:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/19/pentagon-quizzes-nato-allies-on-political-loyalty-documents-reveal
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/09/04/us-nato-europe-troops-survey-loyalty-survey/91595311007/

Threat perceptions:
Us on middle east/asia https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FP_20201210_indo_pacific_ohanlon.pdf
European threat perceptions:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/europe-grappling-its-identity-well-russian-aggression
https://thediplomatinspain.com/en/2025/09/05/spain-and-the-sahel-security-at-stake-after-international-withdrawal/
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-906473

NATO:
https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-speech-by-robert-gates-on-the-future-of-nato/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/trackers-and-data-visualizations/nato-defense-spending-tracker/
https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/nato-operations-and-missions
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=norway&country2=denmark

Bits and bobs that don’t neatly fit into a category:
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty/economic-impact-higher-defence-spending_en
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead

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