41 Comments

1. 

   @fpxy00

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   "The only rational is to act irrational is underdog nuclear power position!"
   pitty Putin is not wiling to take any risks. Thats why guy like Prigosin would be best thing for Russia.

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2. 

   @userasdf1546

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   1.5 years later update: Putin regretted his decision to go to war and might have just died from a heart attack.

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3. 

   @Randomii15

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   This one didnt age well

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4. 

   @gabriela.pierzynski9923

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   Didn't really hold up did it : )

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5. 

   @miniaturejayhawk8702

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   "War is bad for everyone."

   Warlords, mercenaries and arms industries across the world: "u wot m8?!"

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6. 

   @EuroUser1

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   The video begins assuming state realism. But, later, the Traffic Light coalition doesn't give a f-ck about what happens to Germany after their mandate.

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7. 

   @curiousitycave

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   But that's just a theory, a game theory!

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8. 

   @cameronwarttig1732

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   Good prediction

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9. 

   @mariorobotnik8090

   February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

   i’m a simple man. I see Game Theory, I click

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10. 

    @DeepThinker202

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Hes showing how the west works and trying to get the world to change for russia.

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11. 

    @DeepThinker202

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Game change is what he wants

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12. 

    @DeepThinker202

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    No appeal is not what he wants.

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13. 

    @colonelchuck5590

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Eggheads in their ivory towers.

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14. 

    @ScrapKing73

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Interesting to come back months into the war and re-watch this video. I bet no one had an entry in their Ukraine game theory table for Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership as a direct consequence of S2!

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15. 

    @pedroewert143

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    maybe factor in time horizon – im quite sure putin thinks in imperial terms and he thinks a western-aligned ukraine today may mean russias death in 100 years – as he is already certain that this means russias death and maybe wars with million dead in the future – he may sacrifice now money and people for a bigger exptected outcome in the future.

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16. 

    @HaNguyen-yl5bo

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    please do similar videos like this. It's really helpful!

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17. 

    @youcantata

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Best strategy in game theory is "tit-for-tat", hands down. Offer Russia a small carrot to domesticate. But if she go wild, punish her hard with big stick. Now Russia have chosen big aggression, so it is time for big stick. Screw her hard.

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18. 

    @lordcabbage4931

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Ah… ahem… yeah that makes sense… why even for half a second did I even think the oth- yeah no this makes perfect sense carry on

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19. 

    @TheSwiftFalcon

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Watching this after Putin has been waging his bloody war for a month, I feel like removing Putin has a pretty high utility for both the west and Russia.

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20. 

    @wislordthewhite2823

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Did not age well

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21. 

    @jacopoabbruscato9271

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Truth is, the stakes are far higher for Russia than they are for NATO. The West has very little to gain while Russia has a lot to lose. That's why Putin chose aggression, the status quo meant things would get steadily worse and worse for Russia. Crimea is far too valuable for them, being both an access to the Black Sea and to gas deposits discovered in 2012 which, if exploited by anyone else, would severely cripple russian economy. And Crimea was getting increasingly harder to hold due to the Ukrainian government blocking the water flow to the peninsula. Plus Ukraine getting into NATO (now impossible, but it was a possibility until three weeks ago) would have meant hostile forces a day of driving away from Moscow. In all this, the west has little to nothing to gain, except dissuading further russian aggression.

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22. 

    @BudFox559

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    It is too over simplified, Putin doed need to be provided an off ramp, because the alternative in either outcome, (a collapse of Russia) is too expansive. On the other hand the economic of the EU since Brexit or Russia being fores out of the petroleum make by the Ukraine would be sustainable. The Ukraine is a big fish doe both the EU and Russia. The EU need geopolitical expansion to save their currencies. NATO is just their big whip. Also at stake is the legitimacy of NATO to issue global economic and social ultimatums in pursuit of the global government narrative. in the end it is all about global collectivism to save over leveraged fiat currencies which could never be serviced by realistic GDP projections. In short the western world has legacy issues naver addressed in 2008 which vastly exceed their income.

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23. 

    @timothystockman7533

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    The West already chose appeasement a few years ago: Crimea. Both sides already understand this is a repeat game.

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24. 

    @sirurg

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    The EU has to step in or lose out on the potential benefits of developing trade and investment in the Russian economy.
    This requires a "zero sum" game. Listening to the U.S. and its policy of sanctions will not work

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25. 

    @gedizaksit

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    In hindsight, spot on.

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26. 

    @fartsuckernerd2690

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    But that's just a theory… A game theory! Aaaaaand cut.

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27. 

    @twagetomato

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    War was, in reality, insufficiently disincentivized.

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28. 

    @crawkn

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    "Increasing the appeal of" the status quo is an oxymoron, because then it is not the status quo, it is either a form of appeasement or a threat of aggression, or both. It might be possible to do appeasement without damaging the West's interests, but only if it is not interpreted as a reward for aggression, which increases the appeal of further aggression.

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29. 

    @chandanaanil2249

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Wow

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30. 

    @msthalamus2172

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    More caveat than content, I'm afraid. 😀

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31. 

    @blydenpotts570

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    A lot depends on what "utility" values one estimates for the options, and I think those implied here are off, which means the decisions based on them will not be accurate. The "status quo" (in this simplified version of the game) is clearly a negative utility for Russia and a positive utility for "the West". That is what pushed Putin into invading/annexing Crimea and now invading Ukraine again. "The West" is only going to get Russia to return to that if the consequences of the other options are clearly significantly worse,. The big dangers are (1) if the sides misunderstand the rationality and utility/payoff assessments of the other sides, (2) irrational actors, (3) payoff structures among the 3 or 4 sides structured in such a way as to push toward escalation, and (4) scenarios in which horrific outcomes like nuclear war, or even limited tactical nuclear strikes, become a satisfactorily rational response for either side. The more that the entire tree has negative utility for Russia the less unsatisfactory in comparison the nuclear response presumably becomes.

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32. 

    @kafkaesk3449

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Game theory works! The prediction is correct. Can I have my $10 now?

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33. 

    @teslastellar

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    First you assumed that countries and their leaders are the same. Later in the video, you separate leaders and countries and assume that the game changes after change in leadership.

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34. 

    @leondbleondb

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Why 11 though?

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35. 

    @theb5904

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    well yea

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36. 

    @arjenb8403

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    I think I have to start learning Russian and Mandarin.
    And as an dutch person I already know how to learn languages easily. 🙂

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37. 

    @gordongekko6330

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    And what about exchanging roles and considering Ukraine crisis as the Nth iteration of a game in which "The West" is the aggressor and absorb one eastern country on each iteration; would it explain that at some point, Russia would react aggressively to entice "The West" to stop absorption of countries?

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38. 

    @gsneff

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Ah, the Europeans and their “just hand over the phone but if he does it again then call the police” attitude. In Texas we shoot the mugger the first time he makes that mistake.

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39. 

    @wli2718

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    while i agree with some of the comments in this thread, the conclusions in the video appears sound. appeasement is probably the most rational decision here.
    Putin's main ask is for NATO to not expand east. while this is a loss to NATO, it is superficial loss. Ukraine is a hot bed of problems right now so sticking up for them provides very little benefit and risking far to much at stake.

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40. 

    @SEANMCAD

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    When the US makes the decision to actively inform the media that they know Russia will attack and in general when they will attack and broadcast it hourly, basic tactics say 'you wait for another day'. Sometimes I think people think Putin doesnt have access to CNN or something

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41. 

    @und3rcut535

    February 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    it is simple Russians are ready to go to war for Ukraine and West is not

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