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Will Wagner Invade Ukraine from Belarus?

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Prigozhin’s exile into Belarus has sparked concern that it could result in a Wagner-led offensive & open up a Northern front in Ukraine. So in this video, we explain what’s happened to Wagner since the coup, and whether this suspected invasion is likely.

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1 – https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/28/can-ukraine-capitalise-on-chaos-in-russia
2 – https://www.ft.com/content/68b98279-7904-4ffd-84b2-07fda79755f0
3 – https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/631
4 – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-the-complex-calculations-that-will-decide-whether-belarus-enters-the-conflict-on-russias-side-179816
5 – https://tass.com/world/1474927
6 – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/3/lukashenko-says-ukraine-fired-missiles-at-belarus-military-posts
7 – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-fears-that-belarus-might-invade-on-russias-side-are-growing-185416
8 – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-swamps-make-attack-belarus-unlikely-now-2023-01-12/

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. @lolexplosions4214

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Didn’t he also wanted to invite Poland as well

  2. @jude175

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    "this is probably what Ukraine IS worried about", not "this is what Ukraine ARE worried about". I mean, how many Ukraines are there?

  3. @MirsadaPobrklic

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Marsh puting.marsh.ljugah

  4. @babyhank5468

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Russians have to attack from Belarus side coz, from the Russian side both army's stuck or just locked were no one moves.

  5. @damian1725

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Being an officer rather than a politician, he was frustrated with the decadent state of decision making at the top of the army, the lack of support with ammunition and the fact that Putin doesn’t actually want to conquer Ukraine, instead looking for compromises, believing Western leaders can be negotiated with in good faith. Many high ranking officers involved in the war have also been unhappy with this state of affairs for a while, wanting a
    full on aggressive invasion. Except the cabinet clerks who just obey and want to keep their positions. Prigozhin and the like believed in the need for a more
    offensive strategy, and wanted to punish saboteurs in the ministry of defence.

    All while Putin is content with the slow burning war of attrition: to keep exhausting EU support while watching Ukraine exhaust it’s manpower and resources, making sure economic relations with the EU are salvageable, and that NATO doesn’t get provoked the join the fight. Prighozin also made a lot of enemies criticising those cabinet generals, and when they tried to sabotage him, rigging his troops passage back home with mines, he was having non of it. He made a “peace march” to Moscow with his 25k (some say 8k) troops to clear the air and get his enemies in the ministry of defence sacked. People welcomed Wagner group in the city they stopped at (Rostov), Wagner reputation was through the roof after their blitz on Bakhmut and him being vocal about the issues within the ministry of defence. Army generals weren’t taking the ultimatum though, and it seemed bloodshed was inevitable.

    All of a sudden, Belarus President who’s known Prigozhin for 20 years, held talks with him for a day, persuaded him to avoid shedding Russian blood and offered to relocate Wagner to Belarus. Putin also met with the commanders of Wagner group and offered them positions in the regular army (most refused, but tension was lowered). All in all, very disconcerting and chaotic, but not the civil war the West was hoping for. That was definitely not a chess move by Russia too, factional squabbles are very common and just make sense with how it went down here. Now Wagner group is getting a new camp and a ton of new “toys” from Russia. Wagner is still formidable though. Won’t conquer Kiev on its own, but on the plus side it also serves as extra protection at Lukashenko’s side from coloured revolutions the US is so fond of staging, making sure it doesn’t turn into another Ukraine. Anyway, that’s the version from several non-governmental Russian sources like insider news channels, lobbyists and military correspondents. Sensible perspective, nothing more.

  6. @dxd42

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Will NATO approve the massive use of prohibited cluster bombs by Ukraine? What will be the next limit Nepalm? Orange agent? 🤔

  7. @JAlucard77

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    The PotatoMan isn't going to get mixed up in Russia's war. Hes barely hanging on to power as is

  8. @JAlucard77

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Wagner will probably "give up" the prison troops to the MOD and then rebuild in Belarus

  9. @JAlucard77

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    LMFAO I'm SO SICK AND TIRED OF ALL THESE STUPID AZZ 4D, 5D,20D CHESS STATEMENTS. PEOPLE NEED TO STOP DRINKING THE KOOLAID!!🤣🤣

  10. @ersinozturk1406

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Very naive comments

  11. @samashworth7728

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Been confirmed by a few sources now. That wager have been attacking Ukraine from the north from Belarus

  12. @dannywest7587

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Only through the radio waves!!

  13. @jascam1

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    The USA will easily and without conscience deploy WMD on European soil as they sit comfortably and press buttons safely from the other side of the Atlantic.

  14. @michaelkirk4173

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    I have been avoiding this video for days because the answer was clearly No. But your channel provides enough value that I assumed things were more complex. Interesting to learn Wagner is still in Russia. Thank you.

  15. @tomlxyz

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    I don't get why people think Putin would stage a fake coup to be able to get an attack from the north when he'd lose face in the process; especially since it didn't work out the first time where the Ukraine forces weren't in war mode

  16. @leonleon2276

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    It was not a coup attempt.

  17. @phillip6500

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    don't be stupid they are not on vacation. it cost a great deal of money the field an army. 1… pressure to Mr Z to move soldiers to Kiev. 2… keep poland out. 3…take Kiev

  18. @antoniobertazzo4150

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    Cercate la pace per favore perche vi azzuffate

  19. @franciscoangeles1571

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    First thing i thought when they said he would be exiled to Belarus.

  20. @JohnDoe-vy5hh

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    If Priggo invades from Belarus NATO should send air strikes on Wagner.

  21. @Gardstyle35

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    No. if u were lucky to read this, u just saved over 8 minutes of ur precious lifetime. ur welcome. also TLDR is not objective, they are clearly left leaning and its showing in every 2nd video

  22. @David-gy6fv

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    In a span of 2wks Belarus got nukes and Wagner. Rumours had it that Poland wanted to invade Belarus. Belarus build a new base for Wagner One month before the coup attempt.. this was Kremlins plot.

  23. @siggevibes

    February 22, 2024 at 2:29 am

    My guess is that this is, if indeed it's a “4d chess” move, there to draw Ukrainian troops from the counteroffensive.

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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