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How will Wagner’s Mutiny affect Ukraine on the Battlefield?

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As the dust settles around Wagner’s mutiny, we explore the impacts it will have on the war in Ukraine. How will this affect Russia’s offensive and defensive capabilities? And what does this mean for Putin’s long term strategy and ultimate objectives?

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00:00 Introduction
01:28 Is this the end of Wagner in Ukraine?
03:01 How will this affect Russia tactically?
05:23 How will this affect Russia strategically?
08:10 Ground News

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42 Comments

42 Comments

  1. @kkkiren599

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    It was a deliberate drama to serve it's purpose to dampen accountability of the regular army for human rights violations committed in the eatlier months of procedural coercive terrorism in contravention to Geneva Convention. Wagner had an important African commitment scheduled and a Belarusian purpose to serve to counterbalance Ukraine's Counter offensive.

  2. @michaelstone5298

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I'm starting to think that Putin's too invested with ego to begin peace talks, (he doesn't want to admit he's been defeated by ukrainians), he seems to be clutching at straws thinking he can prolong the warenough maybe Trump or another Republican who is isolation is Tumi win the us or european resolve make crack or somehow Ukraine may run out of ammunition, (without Western supplied airpower substituting for that).

  3. @michaelstone5298

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Belarus is not in a position to provide any kind of decisive military difference in Ukraine!
    as for China the Korean war was more of a special instance the Americans were right on their border we're actually bombing in China under MacArthur so I doubt it.

  4. @michaelstone5298

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    How do they define those who didn't partake in the mutiny? there are at least twenty thousand men in that column headed to Moscow?

  5. @KhaalixD

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Great video!

  6. @abdullahrizwan592

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    It may be true that Putin does not want to mobilize but I am sure that he will do it before suing for peace. Peace may be more likely now than before, but it is still a far way off. I think suing peace will be the end of Putin and he will go any way to avoid it.

  7. @thedecadecalled90s64

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    You are too optimistic to be practical.

  8. @yeeloongong

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    There is a third option – Putin can always pull the surrender Ukraine to me now or i blow your country back to the stone age gambit – waiting for him to become as stupid and insane as Trump to do that

  9. @henriroggeman7267

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Prishcovine? Who the hell is that?

  10. @rfarchi

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Preh-goh-gin

  11. @nedkeith2669

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Can the Russian people prevent China from softly invading Russia.

    1. To seize back traditional Chinese lands
    (A political win for the CCP)
    2. To Secure energy, water and material resources. ( a geopolitical and strategic win for China)

    Russian PMCs threaten to destabilize the Russian Federation: Putin's regime specifically.

    China can softly invade Russia under the guise of peacekeeping in support of Putin's regime. Then China can negotiate an effective reversal of the Amur Annexation.

    China can supplant the Russian oligarchs for corporate control of Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil etc with a puppet russian CEO, and executing dissenting corporate parties KGB style. All while the PLA protects and controls Putin.

    It's a win-win situation. Because it saves Russia from falling into total chaos, think PMC states that my have seized control of a nuclear warhead. IT prevents China from losing most of the advantages of Russia, secures nuclear warheadS, provides political relief for the CCP regarding Taiwan, and provides stability for the Russian Federation its people. This would also deter NATO and The UN from forcing reparations onto the Russian Federation. Further it can prevent breakaway states from secession.

    It seems to me from my narrow understanding of information and the systems in play that:

    It's good for NATO:
    Russia doesn't fall into chaos, stabilizing Russia will occupy China and provide political satisfaction for the people of China regarding the CCP. Nuclear warheads are secured.

    Better for Russia:
    Russia avoids falling into chaos and civil wars and paying reparations. Russian people are already cut off from the western economy. They already are cheated out of their land's resources.

    Better for Taiwan:
    Closes the window on China's capability and will to take over Taiwan and secure future technologies in computational processing

    Good for the China:
    China gets food, water, fertilizer, gas, oil, etc the ccp get political wins, securing the return of traditional Chinese territories

    Good for the western economy:
    Global stabilization, global trade can be less hampered by western sanctions.
    TSMC and the like have more time to relocate factories to Secure areas of the world.

  12. @terjeoseberg990

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    If it was an attempted coup, then Prigozhin is incredibly stew pid. If he wanted to stage a proper coup, he would have had a sleeper cell in Moscow that could have taken over the Kremlin, all the police stations, and all the government buildings. This would have been arranged well in advance.

  13. @hetmankp

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Who the heck is Prizhgovin? 🤣🤣🤣

  14. @jonathanchirwa

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Alier

  15. @olegfecanin

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Prigozhin, not Prizhkovin

  16. @bradleyadams4496

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    It doesn't matter. Putin has already lost the people who matter. He can't maintain order in Russia if challenged by someone offering order and trade resource. It's a question of logistics and the replacement of law enforcement. You can prove the concept in Russian territory near the border with Ukraine. The Russian population is ready to side with anyone, especially a side which offers better standards or goods, over Putin. The plan needs to be able to supply these individuals with goods, and to even have jobs to offer them when you enter into a new operation zone. The people will work to build the defenses against Putin's war machine for money, good resources, and protection from terrorist attacks from Putin. Wagner dude, is just a stupid dude who want the fools to support his claims to fame and prestige. Someone who wants to capitalize will let the people there know to get in line, and for those who do get in line to prosper more than those who don't, and this is a redline zone, so you wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the line, but it's the best transition for Russia as they are a people who have never had decent law nor order.
    Don't complain about their not being rights for people, and don't hold too closely to the ones you swear you possess.

  17. @iliyaivanov1994

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Man, I like your videos. But damn… at least make an effort to not butcher the names of the people you report on… Prigozhin is not Priskovin

  18. @landmimes

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    No. The convenience of positioning Wagner in Belarus and the near perfect execution of this "coup" seems like it's had a lot of planning behind the scenes. I believe it's likely that this is a play by Russia to attempt to stage another blitz attack on Kiev from Belarus.

  19. @BattleF08

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Does this channel just pronounce names wrong on purpose for extra engagement in the comments? Cause it's starting to look deliberate. It's honestly unrealistic that during the entire research into these complicated matters, that how the names of those involved are actually pronounced, has escaped the entire TLDR team.

  20. @brucewayneissupermanquinn601

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Just found your channel whilst looking for info on tbd Wagner situation. I can’t tell you how clear and concise your information is. Wonderful presentation!!

    ——A Fan from USA

  21. @AbrasiveTea

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Not really considering the Ukrainian offensive seems to have failed

  22. @mikitz

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Jevgeni 'Prishkovin' Prigoshin…

  23. @mukenditshibangu6653

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    THE EXPECTATIONS FAILED

  24. @robadobadingdong7104

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Part of me thinks it’s just a scam to move Wagner troops within a stones throw of Kyiv

  25. @jordanbordan2383

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I love you guys, but why can't you still say prigozhin's surname wrong man. It's not prishkovin. It goes like pre-go-gin.

  26. @A0x60

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I feel like I watched a 10 minute video of someone trying to manipulate me

  27. @RamonAnt

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I do not think so.

  28. @jeylonblake3407

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    This explanation makes no sense. Putin's only choice is to escalate the war, and Wagner's group's goal was not to topple Putin but to remove the defense minister, they have clearly said that. Removing Putin without the support of the military or FSB would be impossible. Putin's regime actually looks quite strong for the fact every single government leader within Russia immediately declared their support for him.

  29. @michaelblackledge5447

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I wish I shared your opimism. Putin will lose even more face with peace talks so I can see him attacking the Ukraine like mad. I do really hope I am proved wrong though!

  30. @obefff

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    You don't count Wagner in Africa

  31. @mariquevandermerwe8516

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    its a trap,…..

  32. @Kaktusiechanizigama

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    You are so bad at saing Prigoshin that its becoming a feature.

  33. @kevint.8553

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    What does "running low" even mean?

  34. @Trotsky1981

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Not the most convincing of arguments.

  35. @xzeroangelx

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I love the thorough and informative coverage. However, when you cannot take the 5 minutes to learn how to pronounce the name of the man of the hour it makes you look amateurish. Please correct it or have another speaker.

  36. @davidmeunier5213

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Do you really believe that Wagner troops that didn't participate wouldn't be folded in to the regular army… they will… because Russia is desperate…

  37. @Christine-rk1dp

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Am I the only one that thinks the “Wagner mutiny” narrative stinks to high heaven?

    Wagner marched, uninhibited towards Moscow (with a force unable to take Moscow, mind you) and left within 24hrs without any battles taking place. A peace deal was negotiated in less time than a news cycle.

    The result is that Wagner is now in Belarus (under the banner of amnesty and asylum). They can still launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarus. Amid speculations on Lukaschenko’s failing health, this would’ve been a massive point of weakness for Russia, particularly if Lukaschenko was replaced by someone sympathetic to NATO/Ukraine. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Wagner, supported by “volunteer/separatist forces” (i.e. the Belarusian military, without Belarus openly declaring war on Ukraine), attacking Ukraine in the future.

    Belarus accepting a “separatist group”/“mutineers” based of face value, makes no sense. Why would you want an unstable foreign military force inside your borders? That is, unless that’s not the situation and it’s all part of the plan.

  38. @samfish6938

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Ukraine said Russia used chemical weapons

  39. @calebcotter2850

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    Love the content

  40. @raularaujostrw

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    What the hell is up with your pronunciation of Prigozhin? Jesus Christ.

  41. @limmeh7881

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    I wonder how Kyiv has been doing since the territories there were liberated last year. They probably haven’t idled, and I highly doubt they’re not considering a Wagner attack via Belarus.

  42. @vortexgen1

    February 16, 2024 at 10:40 am

    The Russian military has moved 75 T-55 tanks to the front lines in Ukraine. Don't tell me that Russia doesn't have critical shortages going on right now. The Russian military is losing hundreds of artillery pieces and thousands of soldiers per week.

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Sources
Le Pen ruling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgdlprp1r3o
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html?srsltid=AfmBOop8MvrmAXXnkbdvH6ZIU7F64rHVChHhihtUTmEHMMGDLfOTFeqH
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Polymarket data
https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election

Polling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
https://tolunacorporate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rapport-Toluna-Barometre-Presidentielle-2027-Vague-2-M6-RTL-Mai-2026.pdf

Comparing Bardella and Le Pen
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/
https://www.ft.com/content/82523acf-a51d-4e6a-bb19-60d0c7899b6d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/france-presidential-election-le-pen-bardella.html

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